Eye on the storm: Expect more storms in September

By Emery Jeffreys

Florida residents have endured three months of hurricane season. The most active months are ahead. Now, two of the top hurricane forecasters are predicting a more active hurricane season -- a 190 percent increase in September over their previous prediction issued in late May.

September is expected to experience five named storms, William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State University forecast team said.

September should be almost twice as active as a typical September.

Two of the five storms likely will become major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes.

"We expect the month of September to be quite active," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast. "We have seen some of the lowest pressure readings on record in the tropical Atlantic during August."

Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain above average, Klotzbach said.

The combination of very low pressure and higher than average water temperatures ought to add up to a very active September, the forecasters said.

A historical map of hurricane tracks across Florida is streaked with dozens of red lines of death and destruction.

It's as if a hurricane is the villain in a bad slasher movie and the red lines represent its rampage across the Sunshine State.

During the past several years the hurricane seasons, June 1 to November 30, have been relatively calm. The past calm seasons may lull citizens into a false sense of safety, according to forecasters at the National Weather Service and the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University.

The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables predicted an active 2008 hurricane season. Forecasters predict between six and nine hurricanes and up to 12 tropical storms.

Five hurricanes could reach destructive levels, meaning hurricanes of Category Three or above on the five -level Saffir-Simpson scale. Category Five is the most destructive.

Hurricane forecaster William Gray of Colorado State first forecasted 15 tropical storms during the season with eight storms of hurricane strength. The Colorado State team differs slightly from the government predictions. Four of the hurricanes would be major.

Emergency management experts worry that hurricanes making landfall along the southeastern coast could put up to 35 million people at risk. The most hurricane-prone US region is the southeastern coastline, running from North Carolina to Texas. The region is home to 35 million people, according to the Census Bureau.

Despite the risks, during the last 50 years more than 25 million people moved to these areas, with the majority -- 15 million -- living in Florida, the Census Bureau said.

The Colorado State team has accurately forecast above or below average hurricane seasons 45 of the past 58 years.

Klotzbach stresses that "forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is."

Klotzbach predicted a "very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."

In 2004 and 2005 hurricanes Frances, Jeanne and Katrina ripped through the Caribbean and hit the US coast, leaving a trail of destruction and death in its path.

The 2007 season was milder than had been forecast, but was still devastating.

In 2006, there were 10 named storms in the Atlantic, of which five became hurricanes. None of the hurricanes made landfall in the United States, the first time since 2001 that has happened.

The first named storm of 2007, Subtropical Storm Andrea, formed off the Southeastern U.S. coast — more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

"Whether the prediction is for a below or above average season," Klotzbach said, "have a plan in place. Know what to do. If you are living in a coastal area, heed the advice of emergency officials."

Thousands of people along the gulf coast learned hard lessons in 2005.

Katrina formed over the Bahamas on Aug. 23, 2005, and crossed southern Florida at Category 1 intensity. It strengthened quickly into a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico becoming, at that time, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the gulf.

The 2005 season caused $100 billion in damages and at least 1,923 deaths. Five of the season's six major hurricanes to make landfall — Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma — were responsible for most of the destruction.

The Mexican state of Quintana Roo, Florida and Louisiana were each struck twice by major hurricanes; Cuba, Mississippi, Texas, and Tamaulipas were each struck once and in each case brushed by at least one other.

The season runs from June 1 to November 30.